地质灾害保费及其实证研究——以湖南省娄底市为例

Geological Hazard Premium and its Empirical Study——A Case Study of Loudi City in Hunan Province

采用随机模拟技术对地质灾害风险损失进行模拟,利用在险价值(VaR)方法计算各个风险区域的保费规模,以此研究地质灾害保险的价格,并用控制变量法研究投保率对保险价格的影响。实证研究以湖南省娄底市2008-2013年地质灾害损失为研究样本,计算出各风险区域的总保费和人均保费,结果表明保费均在可接受的范围内,同时它还能很好地反映风险,风险越高保费越高。投保率是影响保费的重要因素之一,投保率越低保费越高。

Risk losses of geological disasters are simulated by stochastic simulation technique. Using the Value at risk（ VaR） method to calculate premium scale in each risk area,and in order to study geological disaster insurance prices,we use the control variable method to research the insured rate influence on the price of insurance.The empirical study takes the geological disaster loss of as the research sample in Loudi City during 2008- 2013.By calculating the total premium and the premium per capita in the risk area and the results show that the premium is acceptable. At the same time,it can reflect the risk and the higher the risk,the higher the premium. Insurance rate is one of the important factors that affect the premium. The premium rate increase with the rate.