钢制卧式储罐被洪水破坏概率分析

Damage probability of steel horizontal vessel impacted by flood

为研究钢制卧式储罐的洪水破坏概率和泄漏频率,基于洪水作用下储罐的荷载分析,构建储罐机械破坏简化模型,获得了卧式储罐失效曲线;利用简化模型建立147种钢制卧式储罐的洪水破坏失效数据库,获得了储罐临界装量系数与洪水深度的拟合关系式;以洪水流速和临界装量系数为参数,建立卧式储罐破坏概率和危险物质泄漏频率快速计算模型。结果表明:储罐失效曲线是安全区和失效区的分界线;临界装量系数与洪水深度满足线性关系,系数由储罐外形特征参数确定;用破坏概率和泄漏频率,可定量表征卧式储罐的洪水灾害风险。

To obtain the flooding damage probability of the steel horizontal vessels,representative geometry parameters of horizontal vessel were extracted,and a simplified damage model was built based on the force analysis of the vessel and the anchor bolts under flooding load,which takes geometry parameters,flood height and flood velocity into account. This short-cut model can output the failure curve of each single horizontal vessel under the condition of arbitrarily flood condition. Through the application of the model to 147 horizontal vessels,a failure database was established for them. Simplified correlations of critical loading coefficient with geometry parameters were deduced. Taking flooding velocity and critical loading coefficient as the parameters,a model was built for the quick calculation of damage probability and hazardous material leakage frequency of horizontal vessel under flooding. The results of calculation by the model conform to the reality. The calculated frequency can be used to assess flooding risk of horizontal vessels.