多约束条件下基于蒙特卡洛仿真的进度风险评估方法

Monte carlo simulation based schedule risk analysis method under muti-constraints

复杂项目的建设周期长、资源有限、不确定因素多,项目风险评估对项目成功与否起关键作用,其中进度风险评估是必不可少的一个环节。本文针对复杂项目中任务多逻辑关系,提出了基于蒙特卡洛仿真的进度推进算法;针对项目资源有限这个约束条件,提出了基于全拓扑排序的资源冲突解决策略,并给出了全拓扑排序的优化方案。最后介绍了实现的进度风险评估系统,并结合项目实例的2 000次仿真阐述了进度风险的计算,验证了算法及系统的可行性。该系统可帮助项目决策者识别关键任务和评估进度风险。

Complex projects have a long construction period, limited resources and many uncertain factors. Project risk assessment is the key to success of projects, and schedule risk analysis is an indispensable part of it. The paper comes up with the Monte Carlo simulation based schedule forward algorithm, aiming to solve the problem of multiple logic relationships of tasks.It also comes up with the overall topological sort algorithm, aiming to solve the problem of limited resources. At last, the paper introduces the schedule risk analysis software and elaborates on the calculation of schedule risk through 2000 simulations of a sample project. The software can help project manager recognize the critical tasks and assess schedule risk.