计及牵引负荷的电力系统概率潮流

Probabilistic load flow with traction loads

为了分析牵引负荷对电力系统的影响,通过对牵引负荷实测数据的概率密度进行曲线拟合来描述其概率特性,使用舍选法产生服从其概率分布的随机数据,再采用蒙特卡洛法对接入牵引负荷的IEEE-30节点系统进行了概率潮流计算,得到了各节点电压和各支路有功功率的概率分布。通过分析比较牵引负荷加入前后电力系统节点电压和支路有功功率的变化情况,表明了牵引负荷波动的随机性使得接入系统节点电压和支路有功功率的波动幅度增大,节点电压的越限概率增大。

To analyze the influence of traction loads on power system, the probability density of traction loads measured data is applied to curve fitting to describe the probability characteristic, this paper adopts rejection method to produce random data which obey the probability distribution, then the probability distribution of node voltage and branch active power is achieved by proceeding probabilistic power flow calculation of the IEEE-30 nodes system with traction loads which adopts monte carlo method. Analysis and comparison of the variation of node voltage and branch active power before and after the connection of traction loads with power system demonstrate that the stochastic variation of traction loads will result in larger fluctuation range of node voltage and branch active power, and bigger bus voltage beyond limits probability.