从出口扩张到对外贸易“换挡”:基于贸易结构转型的贸易与研发政策选择

From Export Expansion to the “Shift”of Foreign Trade:The Choice of Trade and R&D Policy

在国内要素成本不断上涨和发达国家"再工业化"的背景下,我国对外贸易将从高速扩张,"换挡"到中高速增长的"新常态",对外贸易结构能否相应地实现转型升级、贸易与研发政策如何制定,值得深入研究。本文在纵向关联市场框架下构建理论模型,探讨在核心技术水平落后于发达国家的前提下,实现贸易结构转变的方式和条件,以及贸易结构转变前后的贸易和研发政策选择。本文发现,在进口中间产品的贸易格局下,我国实施研发补贴和出口补贴政策,可以实现贸易质、量增长的平衡;而在出口中间产品的贸易新格局下,我国仍然可以通过实施研发补贴和出口补贴政策,实现贸易质、量达成新的平衡。本文还发现,创新驱动发展是在贸易增速"换挡"的"新常态"下,实现出口结构转型升级和出口数量稳定增长的关键。

China＇s foreign trade has shifted gear from the previous high-speed expansion to the medium-to-high speed rapid growth since the rising of the cost of domestic factors and the re-industrialization of the developed countries. It is worth to study that how to make trade and R＆D policy to achieve the succeed transformation. We construct a theoretical model based on the vertical-related market and in the context of the lower technology level compared to the developed countries. We discuss the route and the condition of the realization trade structure transformation in China, we also discuss the choice of trade and R＆D policy under certain economic. Our results show that, the implementation of R＆D subsidy and export subsidy policy can achieve the balance of trade growth between the quality and quantity whatever China exporting or importing the intermediate input. We also find that, in order to realize the transformation and the upgrading of export structure and the steady growth of export quantity in the ＂new normal＂, the key is the development driven by innovation.