产业结构差异与对外直接投资的出口效应--“中国-东道国”视角的理论与实证

Difference in Industrial Structure and Effect of ODI on Export:Theory and Evidence from the “China-host Country”Perspective

本文的主要贡献是揭示了母国与东道国的产业结构差异如何影响对外直接投资(ODI)对出口的作用,并从"中国—东道国"视角给出经验证据。在理论层面:基于ODI的四种基本类型,得到了ODI对出口产生替代效应或创造效应的条件;并分别从产业结构高级化和低级化两个方向出发,论证了无论哪种类型的ODI,随着母国与东道国之间产业结构差异的扩大,ODI对母国的出口创造效应增强。在实证层面:通过108个东道国2003—2011年的面板数据,发现中国对东道国的ODI对出口具有创造效应,产业结构差异对出口具有负向影响;但是,随着产业结构差异程度的提高,ODI的出口创造效应增强。宏观层面的经验证据支持了理论分析,而且实证结果对于样本与变量的设置以及计量方法的选择具有稳健性。

The main contribution of this paper is to reveal how the difference in industrial structure between the home and the host country influences the effect of outward FDI （ODI） on export, and provide empirical evidence from ＂China-host Country＂ perspective. Theoretically, we obtain the conditions of substitution or creation effect of ODI on export based on four ODI basic types. Further, from the two directions of industrial structure changing, we document that with the widening of difference in industrial structure between the home country and the host country, the creating effect of ODI on export increases, regardless of the ODI types. Empirically, we use 108 host countries＇ panel data during 2003-2011 to find that China＇s ODI demonstrates export-creating effect, while the difference in industrial structure has negative impact; and with the increasing of the degree of difference in industry structure, ODI＇s creating effect on export increases. Our macro-level empirical evidence supports the theoretical analysis, and reflects robustness in different settings of samples, variables and econometric methods.