劳动力价格上升与江、浙水稻播种面积相悖变化——基于替代弹性的解释

The Paradox of Rice Planted Area Changes in Jiangsu and Zhejiang:An Interpretation Based on Elasticity of Substitution

理论上提出替代弹性对劳动力价格与水稻播种面积关系的作用机制,并利用江、浙两省2004—2013年水稻播种面积表现出的相异生产轨迹对上述理论推断进行验证。结果表明:江苏省劳动力与其它要素替代弹性显著高于浙江省,且每工日劳动力价格上升,江苏省水稻播种面积增加,而浙江省减少。结论证明农业劳动力价格普遍上升时并不意味着粮食播种面积的下降,相反,国家可以因地制宜地推广如农业机械小型化、劳动力替代技术示范与推广等相关政策以增加劳动力要素的可替代性,巩固粮食供给水平。

This article is the first to propose the importance of the elasticity of substitution for the rice planted area change driven by the increase of wage.The present study addresses the influence of the elasticity of substitution in theory on the crop planted areas,and empirically provides an evidence by using different rice planted area trajectories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang.Results show that the substitution elasticity between labor and other inputs in Jiangsu Province is significantly higher than the one in Zhejiang Province.When labor price increases,rice planted area in Jiangsu will increase,while the one in Zhejiang province will decrease.This study concludes that rising labor price does not mean that the area of grain would decrease.Instead,government can implement relevant policies,such as agricultural machinery miniaturization,agricultural machinery technology demonstration and promotion,to increase the substitutability of labor,thereby improving food supply.