新常态下中国产业结构演进的“逆库兹涅茨化”研究——以泛长江经济带和京津冀经济圈为例

Study on Evolution of Chinese Industrial Structures against “Kuznets Theory”under the New Normal: Case Study of Pan-Yangtze River Economic Belt and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Economic Belt

采用马奎斯特(Malmquist)指数法和索洛(Solow)余值法分别测算泛长江经济带、京津冀经济圈2006—2013年的全要素生产率(以下简称TFP),引入固定效应的面板回归模型,衡量各产业对经济增长的作用。研究发现,泛长江经济带近半数省市呈现"逆库兹涅茨化",京津冀经济圈已完全"逆库兹涅茨化"。在两大经济带中,第二产业TFP对经济增长有正向作用,第三产业TFP对经济增长有反向作用;第二产业TFP虽高于第三产业,但第三产业的劳动力及投资产出却高于第二产业。要发挥市场对资源配置的决定性作用,政府应当引导资本、劳动力等资源在第二、三产业间实现有序流动,厘清政府与市场的边界;加快财税体制改革,加强供给端调控力度;深化供给侧结构性改革,培育新兴产业;打破地域分割,鼓励和引导要素实现跨区域流动。

TFP of Pan-Yangtze River Economic Belt and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Economic Belt from 2006 to 2013 was measured based on Malmquist index and Solow residual. Fixed effects model of panel data and definition of economic growth were introduced to measure effects of all industries on economic growth. It is discovered that industrial structures tended to be not in line with 'Kuznets theory'in almost half of provinces and cities in the Pan-Yangtze River Economic belt. They were totally inconsistent with the 'Kuznets theory'in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Economic Belt. Besides,TFP is discovered to positively affect economic growth in the secondary industry of above two major economic belts,whereas economic growth is found to be negatively affected by TFP in the service industry. However,the labor and investment output are far above the service industry. In order to make the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources,the government should guide the orderly flow of capital,labor and other resources between the second and tertiary industries,and clarify the boundaries of government and make market play a decisive role in resource allocation; the government should accelerate fiscal and tax reform to strengthen efforts to control the supply side,the government should foster the development of emerging industries to accelerate the development of productivity and modern service industry; the government should break the geographical market segmentation,encourage and guide labor or other factors to achieve inter-regional flows.