农民工留城意愿再研究——基于代际差异和职业流动的比较分析

Further Research on City-residing Willingness of the Migrant Workers——Based on Comparative Analysis of Generational Differences and Occupational Mobility

本文将中国农民工流动特征与新迁移理论相结合,系统分析农民工留城意愿的内在机理,从代际差异的角度实证检验两代农民工留城意愿的延续与分化及其影响因素。研究发现:新生代农民工有着更强的留城意愿,但受结构性因素制约,两代农民工留城意愿并未发生根本性变化。职业阶层和职业流动相互作用,职业阶层越高,工作越趋于稳定,农民工越倾向于留城;职业流动次数反向作用于留城意愿。农民工越年轻,人力资本、社会资本越高,居住条件越好,留城意愿越强。农民工城市社会满意度、生活水平变化、工作认知是影响农民工留城意愿的重要因素。建议建立以均等公共服务为核心的新型社会保障制度,提升农民工人力资本水平,创造更好的就业机会,实现农民工市民化。

The floating characteristics of Chinese migrant workers and the new migration theory are com-bined in this paper to systematically analyze the inner mechanism of city-residing willingness of the mi-grant workers and empirical test the continuity,differentiation and related affecting factors about city-resid-ing willingness in two generations of migrant workers based on the perspective of generational differences.The results show that：the new generation of migrant workers have stronger willingness to live in cities andthe city-residing willingness of second generation migrant workers does not change radically because of thestructural restriction factors;the interaction of profession and occupational mobility is that higher the profes-sional classes,the more stability and migrant workers tend to stay in cities,which means that the occupa-tional mobility reverses acting on city-residing willingness;the younger migrant workers have better humanand social capital,get more comfortable,own the stronger wishes;the city and society satisfaction,the stan-dard of living changes,the work perception are very important factors affecting the migrant workers city-re-siding willingness. Finally,some policy recommendations are proposed according to the results of the analy-sis.