淮河流域汛期极端降水时空演变规律分析

Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics on Extreme Precipitation of Huaihe River Basin in Flood Period

研究淮河流域极端降水时空演变规律对流域防洪减灾、水资源规划等意义重大。基于淮河流域24个气象站1961～2011年汛期逐日降水资料，建立极端降水序列，并对极端降水频度和强度的趋势、突变及周期变化特征进行了年尺度和年代尺度的时空变化分析。结果表明，极端降水频度和强度均呈较显著的上升趋势，且均在2000年代出现大幅提高，时间变化的第一主周期为4年；频度和强度的空间分布基本符合右岸强、左岸弱，南部强、北部弱，从上游内陆至下游沿海逐渐增加的分布规律；各年代极端降水空间分布发生变化，沿海与内陆的频度差异逐渐缩小，左右岸的强度差异越来越显著。研究成果可为水资源规划管理工作提供参考。

The research of temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation in Huaihe River Basin has an important significance of flood control,disaster reduction and water resources planning.Based on the daily rainfall data of 24 weather stations in Huaihe River Basin in flood period from 1961 to 2011,extreme precipitation sequences were established.And the temporal and spatial variation at annual and decadal scale for frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation about trend,sudden change point and periodicity was analyzed.The results show that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation increase significantly,especially in the 2000＇s;the first primary periodicity is 4years;basically,frequency and intensity in the right bank are stronger than in the left bank,while those in the south are stronger than in the north;frequency and intensity increase from upstream inland to downstream coast;spatial distribution of extreme precipitation in every decade changes;the frequency＇s difference of coast and inland decreases,while the intensity＇s difference of left and right bank increases gradually.The research findings can provide reference for water resources planning and management.