中国国际资本流动影响因素实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Factors that Influence China's International Capital Flows

文章选取1992-2013年的数据,对中国国际资本流动的影响因素进行实证分析发现:GDP增长率是影响中国国际资本流动的显著因素,GDP增长不仅显著吸引国际资本流入中国,而且显著促进中国国际资本流出。中国房地产市场的较快发展是影响中国国际资本流入的显著因素。国外证券市场的繁荣是吸引中国国际资本流出的显著因素。上证指数是影响中国证券投资流入的显著因素。人民币实际有效汇率是影响中国直接投资流出、证券投资流动的显著因素,但人民币实际有效汇率不是影响中国国际资本总流动、其它投资流动和直接投资流入的显著因素。国内外利率差异是影响中国国际资本总流动、中国直接投资流出、中国其它投资流动的显著因素,但在流动方向上,实证结论与金融理论相悖。另外,国内外利率差异也是影响中国证券投资流入的显著因素。根据实证研究结论,研究给出了相应政策建议。

Based on 1992-2013 data, paper carry out empirical analysis on factors that influence China＇s international capital flows. Results show that GDP growth rate are significant factor influencing China＇s international capital ＂flow, GDP growth not only significantly attract international capital flows into China, but also significantly promote international capital flows, out of China. The rapid development of China＇s real estate market is a significant factor attracting international capital flows into china. The booming of overseas stock market is a significant factor attracting China＇s international capital flows. The booming of China＇s stock market is also a significant factor attracting international portfolio investment flows into China. RMB real effective exchange rate is significant factor influencing China＇s direct investment outflows, portfolio investment flows, but RMB real effective exchange rate is not significant factor influencing China＇s international capital flow, direct investment and other investment flows. The interest rate difference between domestic and foreign is significant factor influencing China＇s international capital flow, direct investment outflow and other investment flow. As far as flows direction concerned, empirical results do not accord with theoretical prediction. In addition, interest rate difference between domestic and foreign is significant factor influencing portfolio investment flows into China. According to these results, the paper offer corresponding policy recommendations to china.