2020时段3种气候模式下灰飞虱对我国风险分析

Effects of climate change on distribution of Laodelphax striatellus and the risk analysis

利用普利斯顿大学开发的最大熵生态位模型(Max Ent)软件分析并预测灰飞虱在我国的风险区变化。结果表明,在当前气候条件下,灰飞虱在中国极高风险区为上海、江苏、天津、山东大部、安徽东部、四川东部等地,高风险区为湖北、湖南、江西、浙江、广西、贵州、重庆和河南等地。在温室气体A1b排放情景下,灰飞虱在2020年的适生区域区划图显示极高风险区在中国总面积略有增加,高风险区面积显著减少;A2a排放情景下,高风险区面积显著减少,主要分布在长江流域以南地区。说明气候变化对灰飞虱在我国的分布有较大影响,该研究有助于增进灰飞虱发生发展与气候因子关系的理解,对于科学预测预报及制定相应的防控措施具有重要意义。

The potential distribution of Laodelphax striatellus in China was predicted by using MaxEnt model,which was developed by Princeton University. The results showed that,Shanghai,Jiangsu,Tianjin,Shandong,east of Anhui,east of Sichuan are the extremely high risk areas for L. striatellus in China. The high risk areas are Hubei,Hunan,Jiangxi,Zhejiang,Guangxi,Guizhou,Chongqing and Henan. With greenhouse gases under the A1 b emissions scenario by 2020,the areas of L. striatellus increased a little in both extremely high and the high risk areas,while under A2 a emissions scenario,the areas would tend to decrease in high risk areas. The research not only helps explain the relationship between occurrence of L. striatellus and climate factors,but also has important significance about how to make scientific forecasting and corresponding prevention measures.