近50年华北地区降水时空变化特征及突变分析

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Precipitation in North China During the Last 50 Years

利用1965—2014年华北地区及其周边75个气象站点的日降水资料,采用一元线性趋势、9年滑动平均趋势、滑动t检验、Mann-Kendall检验、反距离空间插值(IDW)等方法,对华北地区四季降水的时空变化特征的研究及突变分析.结果表明:150年来,华北地区降水呈现小幅度下降趋势;春季降水量的减少率为11 mm/10 a.2春季降水量在1980年降水量显著增加,夏季和冬季的降水量没有明显变化,秋季降水量在1977年降水量显著增加.3华北地区降水空间差异性较大.春季和冬季的大部分站点的降水量都小于平均值.夏季降水量最大,空间上表现为东部多、西部少.

Daily precipitation data of 75 meteorological stations in North China and its surrounding areas during 1965-2014, the characteristics of temporal and spatial variation of seasonal precipitation in North China were studied by using one linear trend, the average trend of 9 a, the cumulative distance adjustment, the t test, the Mann-Kendall test, and the inverse distance spatial interpolation （IDW）. The results show as follows. ①In the north of China, the precipitation in North China has a small decrease during the last 50 years; the decrease rate of spring precipitation is 11 mrn/10 a. ②The precipitation in spring was significandy increased in 1980, and the precipitation in summer and winter had no obvious abrupt change, and the winter precipitation in 1988 was significantly reduced. ③The spatial difference of precipitation in North China is relatively large. In spring and winter, most of the site＇s precipitation is less than the average, while the summer precipitation is the largest, and it is more in the eastern and less in the western in spatial distribution.