新型城镇化驱动居民消费的效应机理与实证

The Driving Mechanism of New Urbanization on Consumer Demand

以消费理论为依据梳理了新型城镇化促进消费增长的机理,认为新型城镇化通过收入、环境、示范、价格、财富效应等驱动居民消费需求增长。并根据我国2000年-2014年分省的面板数据,分别就全国整体及东、中、西部对此进行了实证分析,结果显示：从全国整体看,收入、环境、示范、财富效应与居民消费之间存在正向关系,价格效应与居民消费存在负向关系,居民消费受消费习惯影响较大;分区域看,东部地区的收入、环境、示范、财富效应高于中部地区,而中部地区又高于西部地区,呈现出明显的区域差异。同时,西部地区居民消费的＂惯性＂最强。由此建议将增强收入、环境、示范、财富效应的广度和深度作为减少消费习惯对居民消费影响、扩大居民消费的可行路径。

The paper reviews the driving mechanism of new urbanization on the growth of consumer demand based on consumption theory and shows that new urbanization affects consumer demand through income effect,environmental effect,demonstration effect,price effect and wealth effect. On this basis,it constructs a mathematical model and uses our country＇s provincial panel data between 2000 and 2014 to test the effect in the whole country,east China,central China and west China. The results shows that income effect,environment effect,demonstration effect and wealth effect have a positive role,but price effect has a negative role,and consumption habit is still the dominant factor impacting consumer demand. In east China,income effect,environment effect,demonstration effect and wealth effect are significantly higher than those in west China where consumption habit is the strongest factor. It suggests that we should enhance the breadth and depth of income effect,environment effect,demonstration effect,and wealth effect as a feasible path to reducing the influence of consumption habit on the growth of consumer demand.