信息化对旅游产业增长的贡献——基于面板数据分位数回归的分析

The Contribution of Informatization to Tourism Industry Growth:An Analysis Based on Quantile Regression of Panel Data

文章利用2001—2013年的省际面板数据,采用协整检验和分位数回归模型等方法分析信息化对旅游产业增长的贡献。实证研究结果表明:(1)多数情况下,在旅游产业的不同增长水平,信息化对旅游产业增长的贡献基本稳定在较高的水平,并且大于资本和劳动力的贡献,充分体现了旅游产业增长对信息化的强烈依赖。随着旅游产业增长水平的提升,旅游产业增长会越来越依赖信息化和资本,旅游产业将逐渐从信息和劳动力密集型产业转型为信息和资本密集型产业。(2)信息化对旅游产业增长的贡献随着旅游产业增长水平的提升而小幅下降。对第二个结论,文章从旅游产业增长的不均衡性和旅游产业竞争这两个角度给出了解释。

In this paper the contribution of informatization to tourism industry growth is investigated by employing a cointegration test and quantile regression based on 2001—2013 panel data of 31 provinces in China's Mainland.Firstly,the promotional roles of informatization to tourism industry growth are analyzed qualitatively.Secondly,the advantages of the quantile regression method of the panel data are briefly introduced.It is pointed that variations in the contribution of informatization in different tourism industry growth levels can be investigated by employing the quantile regression method.Thirdly,the model,variable indicators and data source are discussed.The model is based on the traditional CobbDouglas production function and the informatization level variable is added in the model.For examining the stability of the model,the business volume of postal and telecommunication services and the capacity of mobile telephone exchanges are chosen respectively as the informatization level indicator,and the models using the two indicators are respectively defined as model I and model II.The estimates of the two models will be compared.The data from the two indicators are all from the China Statistical Yearbook.The enterprise＇s original value of fixed assets,number of employees and operation revenue of travel agencies and star hotels are chosen as the indicators of the capital,labor and growth level of the tourism industry.These data are all from the Yearbook of China Tourism Statistics（Supplement）.Fourthly,the contribution of informatization to tourism industry growth is estimated.A cointegration test result shows that the cointegration relationship of logarithmic variables exit in model I and model II.Then the fixed effect panel data model including 9 quantiles is estimated by using the quantile regression method.For comparing the results,the model is also estimated by using the average regression method.The empirical results show：（1）The contribution of informatization is high,and it is higher than that of capital and labor in most cases of tourism industry growth.Considering synthetically the change of the contribution of capital and labor,it is believed that the tourism industry will transform to become an information and capital intensive industry from an information and labor intensive industry.（2）The contribution of informatization is related to the level of tourism industry growth.It decreases continually on the whole with the growth of the tourism industry growth,but the extent of the decrease is not big.This conclusion can be interpreted from the views of tourism industry growth disparities and tourism industry competition.From the view of disparities,the contribution of informatization is relatively low in some provinces whose tourism growth level is relatively high because the informatization investment in these provinces is saturated.From the view of competition,owing to the fiercer competition in some provinces with relatively robust tourism growth,the contribution of informatization is weakened more by competition and therefore becomes lower.