我国粮食播种面积的动态演变:1985-2013

The Dynamic Evolution of Grain Sown Area in China: 1985-2013

使用核密度估计等统计分析的方法从总体上、主要品种和主要产区三个层面研究1985-2013年我国粮食播种面积的动态变化情况,在此基础上构建Nerlove适应性价格预期模型,利用动态面板GMM估计方法实证考察影响我国粮食播种面积的基本因素。研究结果表明:我国粮食播种面积总体增长,但其在农作物总播种面积中所占的比重不断下降;不同粮食作物播种面积变化存在差异,主产区粮食播种面积有减少的趋势。粮食价格、财政支农力度对本期粮食播种面积有正向影响,非农产值在地区生产总值中的比重、成灾受灾比则对本期粮食播种面积有负向影响。最后提出相应的政策建议:即坚持粮食播种面积的"底线思维",执行严格的耕地保护措施;着力稳定主产区粮食播种面积;加大农田基础设施建设;加强政府的监管和引导。

This paper analyzes the dynamic evolution of grain sown area in China from 1985 to 2013 by using kernel density and other statistical analysis methods,and it also uses the Nerlove adaptive expectations models with dynamic panel GMM method to study the influences of grain sown area. The results are as follows： the grain sown area is increased overall but its proportion of farm crops sown areas is decreased; the change characteristics of different varieties are not the same; the grain sown area of the main producing areas is falling currently. The positive effect on the grain sown area is the agriculture financial support and grain price,and the negative effect is the ratio of non-agricultural output and GDP natural disaster degree. Based on the above research,we proposed some policy recommendations： execute strict land protection system,stabilize the grain sown area of the main producing areas,strengthen the farmland infrastructure construction and the government should reinforce the supervision and guidance.