基于统计理论的人因事件关联分析

Association Analysis of Human Factor Events Based on Statistics Theory

近年来,随着人误事件不断上升,人们开始大力关注这类事故的发生.为有效减少人误事件,该文提出人误事件的关联规则分析方法,该方法以统计学权重关联规则为基础,计算人误事件中的支持度,置信度及关联程度.所提出的方法通过实验进行测试及应用举例,从结果中,得到核电厂蒸汽发生器传热管断裂人误事件之间的高失误率事件,高置信度及高关联程度事件,以此为根据,对这些事件进行改善,以减少人因事故的发生.

Recently, with human failure events rising, people begin to pay much attention to it. To effectively decrease human failure events, this paper proposes the method of association rules analysis of human error events.The proposed method is based on a weight association rule based on statistics to calculate support, confidence and correlation degree between human error events.The proposed methods are tested by experiences and are ap-plied to an example. From results of experience, we can easily obtain higher error rate e- vents, higher confidence and correlation degree events between human failure events in SGTR event of nuclear power plant.According to those experiment results,we will improve the human events in order to decrease human events.