临沧市双江县植烟区域气候特征分析及风险评价

Climate characteristic analysis and risk evaluation on tobacco-planting areas in Shuangjiang County in Lincang City

为揭示双江县烤烟生产的气候特征和风险度,以1990─2014年气象数据为材料,分析了云南临沧双江县近25年的气候变化趋势,并对气候因子在烟草生产中的风险度进行了评估。结果表明:双江县大田期降雨量和相对湿度呈平稳下降的趋势,烤烟伸根期、旺长期和成熟期的日照时数,以及≥10℃有效积温、平均气温和可用时间则呈缓慢上升趋势。大田期降雨量和相对湿度平均值分别为783.0 mm和77.1%,烤烟伸根期、旺长期和成熟期的日照时数平均值分别为188.5 h、122.6 h和275.7 h,大田期≥10℃有效积温、气温和可用时间平均值分别为2 953.1℃、23.0℃和226.4 d。旺长期降雨量、大田期日照时数风险度和气候总风险度较高,年份间波动较大,并呈缓慢降低的趋势。双江县烤烟生长的重要时期为旺长期和成熟期,其主要的气候限制因子是降雨量和日照时数。不同区域的烟草旺长期降雨量、大田期日照时数风险度和气候总风险度差异较大,邦丙乡的气候总风险度主要受降雨量影响,大文乡和忙糯乡主要受日照时数和降雨量的共同影响。

To evaluate the climate characteristics and the risk degree for tobacco-planting areas in Shuangjiang County, the climate variation trend in the last 25 years was analyzed and the climatic risk factors for tobacco production were assessed based on the local climatic data from 1990 to 2014. The results showed that： in Shuangjiang County, the rainfall and relative humidity decreased steadily at the field stage; the sunshine hours at root spreading, fast growing and mature stages and the effective accumulated temperature of ≥10℃, average temperature and tobacco growing days at the field stage increased slowly. The mean values of rainfall and relative humidity were 783.0 mm and 77.1%, respectively. The mean sunshine hours at root spreading, fast growing and mature stages were 188.5, 122.6 and 275.7 hours; and mean effective accumulated temperature of ≥10℃, temperature and tobacco growing days at the field stage were 2 953.1 ℃, 23.0 ℃ and 226.4 days,respectively. The risk degrees of rainfall at the fast growing stage and sunshine hours at the field stage and total climatic risk degree were higher, with significant fluctuation on annual basis, presented slowly decreasing trendsover time and differed obviously between areas. The important growing stages were fast growing and mature stages and the main climatic limiting factors were rainfall and sunshine hours in Shuangjiang County. The total climatic risk degree was mainly affected by rainfall in Bangbing Village and by sunshine hours and rainfall in Dawen Village and Mangnuo Village.