我国省际能源效率评级研究——基于多元有序Probit模型的实证分析

Research on an Energy Efficiency Rating of China's Provinces——Based on Multiple Ordered Probit Model

经济的可持续发展是以能源的高效利用为基础的,因此研究我国能源的高效利用意义重大。该文首先使用DEA方法测算了我国2005—2012年各省份的能源效率,并以此为依据对各省的能源使用效率评级。采用通过多元有序Probit模型,实证分析了各种宏观经济因素对各省能源效率的影响。研究表明,在2005-2012期间,我国能源效率在地理上呈现出"东高西低"的阶梯状格局,在时间上则表现为"先降后升"的"U型"趋势;并且经济发展水平、产业结构、对外开放程度、所有制结构、技术进步以及资本深化程度对各省能源效率具有显著影响。

The long-standing environment pollution and energy shortage indicate that the traditional extensive growth cannot be persistent in China.Sustainable growth should lay the roots in efficient energy utilization.Given this,it has great importance to research China＇s energy efficiency.In this paper,we calculated the energy efficiency of each province from year 2005to2012 using DEA method.After that,we gave an energy efficiency rating according to provincial energy efficiency.Under the help of Multiple Ordered Probit model,we empirically analyzed the influence of various macroeconomic factors on energy efficiency rating.The research shows that energy efficiency in our country gradually declines from east to west and down first and then up.Moreover,economic development level,industrial structure, openness level, ownership structure,capital deepening and technological progress have remarkable effects on energy efficiency ratings.