基于协整理论的我国旅游业发展与经济增长动态关系研究

On Dynamic Relationship between China's Tourism Industry Development and Economic Growth Based on the Theory of Cointegration

以实证研究方法,基于1990年到2012年的数据分析,论证了中国旅游收入与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的协整关系。运用协整模型,研究得出经济增长和入境旅游对国内旅游的弹性系数分别为0.834 940和0.843 328。Granger因果检验发现,在5%和10%的显著水平下存在LGDP到LDR的双向因果关系和LDR到LIR的单向因果关系,LIR和LGDP之间不存在Grange因果关系。在定量分析的基础上提出了相关建议。

Based on the empirical study, this paper indicates that there is a long-term stable cointegration relation between Chinese tourism income and economic growth according to the data from 1990 to 2012. Through the cointegration model, the elasticity coefficients of economic growth and inbound tourism to the domestic tourism are 0. 834 940 and 0. 843 328. The result of Granger causality test shows that at the significance level of 5 % and 10 %, there is bidirectional causality between LGDP and LDR as well as unidirectional causality from LDR to LIR. And there is no Grange causality between LIR and LGDP. Based on the results of quantitative analysis, the paper puts forward several relevant proposals.