基于WRF模式对西安夏季不同性质降水的数值模拟检验

Numerical Simulation Test on Different Natures of Precipitation in Summer in Xi'an City Based on WRF

[目的]了解WRF模式对西安地区夏季不同性质降水的预报能力。[方法]基于西安地区气象观测站的实况数据、Micaps观测资料、WRF实时预报数据,采用西安市气象台业务化运行的WRFV3.1对2011年7月21日和8月15日2次强对流天气过程及9月5~6日区域性暴雨过程进行模拟分析。[结果]在暴雨预报中,模式对暴雨雨带走向、落区、强度、强降雨中心位置以及强降水出现的时间段均与实况基本吻合,也可以较为准确地预报暴雨中对流层中低层风场的演变;在短时局地强降水中,模式对于降水的落区、发生时间有较为准确的预报,预报时效可达24~36 h。[结论]WRF模式能够对西安地区夏季不同类型降水进行预报,为气象服务提供较为准确的预报支持。

[Objective] To research the predictive capability of WRF mode to different natures of precipitation in summer in Xi＇an City. [Method] Based on real-time data,Micaps observational data and WRF real-time prediction in meteorological station of Xi＇an,we used WRFV3. 1business operation of meteorological station in Xi＇an City to simulate and analyze the regional rainstorm process from September 5 to September6,and the two strong convection weather processes from July 21 to August 15,2011. [Result] During heavy rainfall forecast,rainband trend,falling area,intensity,heavy rainfall center,and occurrence time of heavy rainfall in modes were basically consistent with those of actual situation. It could accurately forecast the evolution of the low-level wind field in rainstorm troposphere. During short-term local heavy rainfall,this mode could accurately forecast the falling area and occurrence time of rainfall. And the period of validity reached 24-36 h. [Conclusion] WRF can forecast the different types of rainfall in summer in Xi＇an City,and provide accurate forecast support for meteorological service.