“一带一路”沿线73国高等教育大众化进程分析

On the Process of Mass Higher Education of 73 Countries along the‘Belt and Road' Initiative Regions

在"一带一路"战略涉及的73个沿线国家中,高等教育进程处于精英教育阶段的国家仅有11个,大多是亚洲低收入发展中国家;处于大众化阶段的国家有29个,主要是亚洲中等收入的发展中国家;处于普及化阶段的国家有33个,主要是欧洲及亚洲经济水平较高的发达国家。总体来看,超过85%的国家目前已经处于高等教育大众化及以上发展阶段。按照高等教育毛入学率的变动情况,可将这73个国家的高等教育发展模式归纳为四种类型:平稳增长型、快速增长型、波动式发展型及缓慢式发展型。预计到2020年,50%以上的"一带一路"沿线国家将处于高等教育普及化阶段,40%的国家处于高等教育大众化阶段,处于精英高等教育阶段的国家将不足10%。

Among 73 countries along the ＇Belt and Road＇ initiative regions, there are 11 developing countries mainly in Asia that are in the stage of elite higher education, 29 Asian middle-income countries that are in the process of mass higher education and 33 developed European and Asian countries that have achieved universal higher education. That is to say, more than 85% of those countries are now in or above the stage of mass higher education. According to the data of gross enrollment rate collected from UNESCO database, the development models of these 73 countries＇ higher education can be divided into four types：steady growth, rapid growth, fluctuation development and slow development. By the year 2020, more than 50% of these 73 countries will step into the stage of universal higher education ,40% of them lie in remain in the stage of elite higher education.