基于模糊综合评价模型的地铁施工风险评估

Risk Assessment of Subway Construction Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model

合肥地铁1号线长距离下穿高架桥,近距离下穿高铁路基和河流,且穿越土层为膨胀土,施工环境十分复杂。鉴于模糊综合评判法的独特优势,通过分析辨识合肥地铁1号线施工典型风险源,建立充分体现上述施工环境特点的风险指标体系,利用修正的模糊层次分析法确定各层指标权重;确立五级风险划分标准;引用一种符合地铁施工风险评估特点的非线性模糊算子,建立修正的模糊综合评价模型,对合肥地铁1号线施工风险进行评估定级。结果表明该评价方法可行,评价结果对合肥地铁施工安全有指导意义,也可为其他类似工程提供借鉴和参考。

The construction surroundings of Hefei Subway Line-1 are quite complex,because of its long-distance traversing under viaducts,close traversing under high-speed rail roadbed and river bed. Through analysis on construction characters of Hefei Subway Line-1,the typical risk sources were identified,the risk evaluation index system revealing the above construction surrounding characters was established. The index weight of each layer was determined by a modified FAHP and a five-class criterion of risk evaluation was established. By citing one kind of nonlinear fuzzy operator,which is suitable for characteristics assessment of subway construction risk,a modified fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was built,and the Hefei Subway Line-1 construction risks were ranked. The results show that this method is reasonable and feasible. The results are very useful to Hefei subway construction and can provide a reference for similar projects.