中国糖料生产时空变动特征及作物贡献要素分解

Sugar Yield Change and Contribution Factors Decomposition of Space and Time——Based on LMDI Model

测度了1978—2013年国内糖料作物产量变化特征,并运用LMDI模型对主要贡献因子展开时空分解研究。结果显示：1整体来看,由科技进步等因素促成的单产提升是糖料总产增长的根本原因;2具体到品种,糖料总产显著增加的主要因素依次为甘蔗生产面积的扩大、甘蔗与甜菜单产的提升,而甜菜播种面积的缩减在一定程度上延缓了糖料总产提升的速度;3从区域布局来看,糖料生产逐步向优势区域集中并呈现出＂西移＂趋势,产业集中度明显提高,且各省糖料总产变化与分品种因素分解效应均存在着显著差异。文章提出要依赖现代化科技提升糖料单产水平、重点推动甘蔗规模化生产、优化区域布局等建议。

In order to clarify sugar crops yield change and main contribution factors in China since the reform and opening up, based on data from 1978 to 2013, space-time decomposition LMDI model was used to study the change and influencing factors of sugar production. The empirical results show that：（1） As a whole, the unit output caused by such factors as the progress of science and technology is the fundamental reason for the increase in total output of sugar.（2） In terms of plant varieties, sugar output significantly increase is the result of these factors, respectively for sugarcane production area expansion, upgrading the sugarcane yield and sugar beet yield improvement. However, sugar beet planting area is reduced to delay the speed of the total output of sugar to a certain extent.（3） From the point of regional layout, the industrial concentration of sugar production has increased significantly and presents a ＂moving westward＂ trend. There exists a significant difference both sugar yield changes and varieties decomposition effect. At the end of the article, we put forward the following suggestions： rely on modern science and technology to promote yield level, focus on promoting sugarcane large-scale production, optimization of regional layout, etc.