洞庭湖区生态承载力时空动态模拟

Temporal and Spatial Difference of Dynamic Simulation of Ecological Carrying Capacity in Dongting Lake Region

从生态弹性子系统、资源环境子系统和社会经济子系统3个角度构建生态承载力系统动力学模型,以2010年为现状年,2018年为模拟结束年,对3个子系统进行现状模拟,根据现状模拟结果以及《洞庭湖生态经济区规划》所确定的目标值进行优化模拟。结果表明:1选取19个指标中需要优化的指标为植被覆盖指数、生物丰度指数、水网密度指数、人均耕地面积、人均水资源量、人均林地面积、第三产业比重和人口数量等8个指标,通过优化模拟,能够促使洞庭湖区自然生态系统和人类社会经济系统不断优化。2从时空模拟结果来看,洞庭湖区17个县域单元生态承载力空间差异和变化较大,对比现状模拟和优化模拟结果,变化最大的是岳阳市区、常德市区和益阳市区3个区域,"W"型空间格局发生了转变。3针对模拟结果,认为应采取控制人口发展规模,树立以生态为导向的发展观,创新体制机制,加强生态系统调控和景观生态规划,转变产业发展方式,提高生态系统服务价值等优化对策,为洞庭湖生态经济区建设与发展提供参考价值。

The ecological carrying capacity is a complex dynamical system, which the interaction and spatial temporal variation of its internal subsystems and elements directly affect the human socioeconomic sustainable development. This paper constructed the system dynamics model of ecological carrying capacity from ecological elastic subsystem,resources- environment subsystem and socio- economic subsystem, and simulated for its status and optimized simulation according to the result and target of ecological economic zone program of Dongting Lake, 2010 as the current year, and2018 as the end time. The results show that： 1） The indicators which need to optimize are vegetation cover index,biological abundance index, river network density index, per capita farmland area, per capita water resources, per capita forest area, the third industry proportion and total population in the 19 selected indicators, the natural ecosystem and human socioeconomic system in Dongting Lake region can be optimized constantly by optimized simulation. 2） The results from the temporal and spatial simulation show that there are significant differences and changes in 17 counties of the Dongting Lake region. Compared the result of current simulation with optimized simulation, the biggest change is urban areas of Yueyang, Changde and Yiyang, The spatial pattern of shape- W from the southwest to the northeast has changed. 3） According to the simulation result, the corresponding developmental strategy should be taken： The first is the people- oriented, meanwhile we should set up the ecological oriented development; The second is the innovation of system mechanism, which can resolve the contradiction between economic and social development and ecological system bearing; The third is to strengthen the ecological system regulation and the programming of landscape ecology, to maintain the elastic force of ecological system; The fourth is to change pattern of industrial development, to improve the ecosystem service value. Its purpose is to provide a scientific basis for sustainable development of regional ecosystem.