20世纪以来国际生育水平变迁历程及影响机制分析

A Study on the Variation History and Mechanism of International Fertility Level since the 20th Century

20世纪以来,人类生育水平迈入一个新的发展阶段,这一阶段生育水平的波动显得复杂而波折。在整个生育水平变动历程中,随着经济社会发展水平的不断提高,其与生育水平之间的关系经历了由负向转为正向的过程。值得关注的是,虽然同处于很高的经济社会发展水平,但亚洲部分发达国家和地区却经历了比欧美发达国家更为低迷的生育水平,婚育文化观念上的差异也许能在一定程度上解释这一现象。结合国际生育水平变迁的历史经验,以及对中国的经济社会发展水平、婚育文化观念特征、生育政策调整完善等多个因素的综合分析,文章认为,现阶段中国的生育水平的确较低,但在未来短期内,不太可能降至部分欧洲国家和日、韩等国家或地区曾经达到的"很低"或"极低"的水平。

Since the 20 th century, the development of human's fertility level has entered a new stage, which has experienced low fertility rate during the inter-war period and fertility level's fluctuation after the Second World War. During the changing process of human's fertility level, the relationship between the level of socio-economic development and the fertility rate has changed from negative to positive. Interestingly, some developed countries in Asia has experienced lower fertility rates than those in developed countries in Europe and North America, which may be partially explained by the differences of the culture of marriage and fertility. Based on the research on the variation history of international fertility level as well as the comprehensive analysis of socio-economic development, culture of marriage and fertility and fertility policy adjustment of China, the paper points out that China's current fertility rate is indeed at a low level, but it is almost unlikely to fall into the 'very low' or 'lowest-low' level which has been once reached by some developed countries in Europe and East Asia in the short term.