近40年黄土高原丘陵红枣种植区气温变化特征及其影响分析

Variation Characteristics of Air Temperature and Its Impact on Jujube in Hilly Region of the Loess Plateau in Recent 40 Years

为进一步了解气候变化背景下黄土高原丘陵红枣种植区气温变化特征及其影响,为红枣产业发展提供科学依据。利用红枣种植区1971—2010年气温资料,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendal法、滑动T检验和Morlet小波分析等方法,研究了该区域年、季平均气温以及年极端最高最低气温的演变特征。结果显示:近40年红枣种植区年平均气温和年极端最高气温显著上升,年极端最低气温下降;四季中冬季增温最明显,其次是春季、夏季、秋季。气温在20世纪80—90年代发生突变,冬季气温突变出现最早,其次为年、春季、夏季气温,年极端最高气温。气温主要存在31年左右的周期。空间分布上具有南高北低、西高东低的特征。气温升高对红枣物候期、产量、病虫害等方面均产生一定影响。

The study aims to understand the variation characteristics of air temperature and its impact onjujube in the hilly region of the loess plateau, and provide decision-making basis for the development of jujubeindustry. Based on the air temperature data of the jujube planting zones in the hilly region from 1971 to 2010,the spatial-temporal characteristics of temperature variation（including the average temperature of year andeach quarter, the annual extreme maximum temperature, the annual extreme minimum temperature） werestudied with linear trend estimation, Mann-Kendall analysis, moving T-test analysis and the Morlet waveletanalysis and spatial interpolation. The results showed that： there was an obvious ascending tendency of theannual average temperature and the annual extreme maximum temperature in the past 40 years, but the annualextreme minimum temperature decreased. All of the seasonal temperatures showed an increasing trend, and thetemperature increase of winter was the highest, then was that of spring, summer and autumn. The airtemperature suddenly rose in the 1980 s to the 1990 s. The air temperature in winter was the earliest thatchanged abruptly, followed by the annual average temperature, spring temperature, summer temperature andthe annual extreme maximum temperature. There was a 31-year cycle of the air temperature during the 40 years period. Spatial variation of the air temperature had an obvious decreasing tendency from south to northand from west to east in the study area. The temperature increase had certain influence on jujube phonological phase, yield, diseases and insect pests and so on.