中国旅游经济增长与城乡收入差距的变异关系

Variable relationship between domestic tourism expansion and urban-rural income gaps

探讨中国旅游经济增长能否有效缩小城乡收入差距有助于全面地认识旅游发展的社会经济价值,发挥旅游经济的正向作用。本文使用人口加权变异系数测度了1999-2013年中国旅游经济增长以及城乡收入差距的变异程度,并在此基础上构建了E-G两步协整模型、误差修正模型以及格兰杰因果检验模型探讨了中国旅游经济增长与城乡收入差距变异程度之间的关系。结果显示:旅游经济增长在各地区都呈现整体收敛趋势,城乡收入差距也整体呈现缩小趋势;全国及东、中、西部的旅游经济增长与城乡收入差距的变异程度之间存在长期均衡的协整关系,中国旅游经济增长的空间变异每增加1%,城乡收入差距的空间变异就增加0.516 9%,说明旅游经济增长的空间收敛对城乡收入差距的空间收敛有影响;误差修正模型结果显示短期变动关系中,中国旅游经济增长的空间变异每呈现1%的增长,城乡收入差距的空间变异就会增加0.631 5%,经济发展越强的地区其长期均衡关系对短期波动的调整力度越小;旅游经济增长空间变异与城乡收入差距空间变异之间存在单向因果关系,据此认为旅游经济增长能够缩小城乡收入差距。

This paper depicts the regional inequality of the domestic tourism economy and the regional inequality of urban- rural income in China from 1999 to 2013 using the coefficient of population- weighted variation. We analyzed the relationship between inequality of domestic tourism economy and regional inequality of urban-rural income using the Engel-Granger Two-step Co- integration Model,Error Correction Model and Granger Causality Model. We found that tourism economic growth and urban- rural income gap is convergent in all regions. Among all regions,the trend of convergence is most significant in the national scope. There is a long- term equilibrium relationship between the inequality of domestic tourism expansion and inequality of urban- rural income gap in China and all other regions. Particularly,the coefficient of populationweighted variation of urban-rural income gap increased 0.631 5% while the degree of variation of tourism economy growth increased 1%. The error correction model showed that for the short-term equilibrium relationship,increasing by 1% the degree of variation tourism economic growth,increases the degree of variation of urban- rural income gap by 0.631 5%. Moreover,the more advanced the regional economy,the stronger the adjustment in long-term equilibrium in the shortterm. This is because with a more stable basis and better environment for development,the expansion of tourism in these areas is more likely to have positive effects on reducing urban-rural income gaps. The results of the Granger Causality Model showed that the growth of degree of variation of the tourism economy is the cause of increasing the degree of variation of the urbanrural income gap,but not vice versa. These data show that growth in the tourism economy in China can reduce urban-rural income gaps.