中等收入水平阶段居民消费结构对产业结构演进的影响——基于跨国数据的实证检验

The Influence of Residents' Consumption to the Evolution of Industrial Structure in Middle-income Stage——Empirical Analysis Based on Cross-country Data

选取9个发达国家和7个发展中国家,以其在中等收入水平阶段的国内居民消费和国外需求情况,分析了代表性国家在中等收入水平阶段的消费需求特征;同时选取5个发展中国家,通过其居民消费、收入差距构造消费结构指标,用面板数据进行FGLS回归,得到以下结论:(1)在代表性国家所经历的工业化时期,居民消费与一国的产业结构演进具有长期稳定的关系;(2)扩大收入差距的直接结果是促进了代表性国家的产业结构软化;(3)在较大的收入差距作用下,居民消费结构偏低,导致居民消费增加对产业结构的软化有反向作用,对低端工业化有正向作用。

This article,based on the domestic residents＇ consumption and foreign demand in middle- income stage of the selected nine developed countries and seven developing countries,analyzes the consumption characteristics of these countries. Based on data from five developing countries,and by analyzing the relation between the variables such as residents＇ consumption,income gap,and consumption structure index,and by FGLS regression with panel data,this article comes to the following conclusion：（ 1） in the industrialization period of the representative countries,the residents＇ consumption has a long- term and stable relationship with the country＇s industrial structure evolution;（ 2） the direct result of the widening income gap is to soften the representative country＇s industrial structure;（ 3） a larger income gap will cause a low the residents＇ consumption structure,which increase a reverse effect in softening the industrial structure,and will impose a positive effect on industrialization.