梅江流域1958—2000年径流量变化特征分析

Analysis on Feature of Runoff Change in Meijiang River Basin from 1958 to 2000

基于梅江流域尖山、水口、横山水文站1958—2000年实测径流量数据,运用统计分析法分析梅江流域径流量的年内变化特征,采用Mann-Kendall(M-K)法、R/S分析法和Morlet小波分析法分析其年际变化特征.研究表明:(1)1958—2000年,梅江流域径流主要集中于5—9月,最大月径流量在6月,最小月径流量在1月,且越往下游9月份的径流峰值越明显;(2)梅江径流量整体呈现增长趋势,从上游到下游径流增长趋势越来越明显,除了秋季外,春夏冬三季增长率从上游往下游不断下降;(3)流域径流在1972—1978年之间发生突变;(4)梅江流域年径流有4、9、18 a准周期,且主要表现为大尺度上的周期性,根据径流的主周期18 a推测,梅江流域整个时间序列上的年径流呈现多-少-多-少-多-少的循环交替特征,推测2000—2018年将一直处于少径流期,R/S分析法检测结果也表明在未来一段时间内径流可能会减少.

Based on the runoff data measured by Jianshan、Shuikou、Hengshan hydrological stations in Meijiang River basin from 1958 to 2000,statistical analysis method is used to analyze inter-annual runoff change characteristics of Meijiang River basin. Based on the data,Mann-Kendall（ M-K） test,R / S analysis and Morlet wavelet analysis are used to study its inter-annual variability. The results show that：（ 1） runoff is mainly focused in May to September from 1958 to 2000; the maximum runoff in June,the minimum runoff in January,and the peak of runoff becomes very obvious from upstream to downstream;（ 2） runoff of Meijiang River basin shows a trend of increase,in addition to the autumn,the rate of growth fall from upstream to downstream in spring、summer and winter;（ 3） the mutational site of whole Meijiang River is from 1972 to 1978;（ 4） quasi-periodic of Meijiang watershed is 4 years,9 years and18 years,and it shows in large scale. According to it,the basin has cycle features of much more to less,and there will be less runoff from 2000 to 2018. The results of R / S always show runoff may be reduced in the next period of time in the future.