碰撞概率对轨道误差和接近几何条件的灵敏度分析

Sensitivity of Collision Probability to Orbit Error and Close Approach Geometry

基于显式表达式对碰撞概率的灵敏度进行解析分析,给出其对接近距离的RSW分量、轨道误差、接近角度和目标大小的两类灵敏度(绝对灵敏度和相对灵敏度)。以美俄卫星碰撞事件为例进行计算和分析,得到灵敏度的变化曲线和数值。该解析方法可以克服数值分析方法中普遍存在的使用不便、计算量大、精度不高等问题。

The sensitivity of collision probability is analyzed analytically based on the explicit expression, and two kinds of sensitivities （absolute and relative） to RSIV components of relative position, orbital error standard deviations, conjunction angle and object size are provided. Taking the U.S. and Russian satellites collision event as an example, the sensitivity is computed and analyzed to obtain the sensitivity curves and values. This analytical method can effectively solve the problems such as inconvenience, heavy computation burden, and error-prone in the numerical method.