M2对CPI波动影响的非对称性研究——基于STR模型的分析

The Research into the Effect of M2 on the CPI Fluctuation——Analysis Based on STR Model

十八大以后,我国进入经济发展新常态,宏观经济政策主要以微刺激和结构调整为主,在保持经济中高速增长的同时还要控制通货膨胀在合理区间。作为衡量通货膨胀的重要指标,居民消费价格指数(CPI)被广泛应用于宏观经济稳定性的分析。针对广义货币供应量(M2)对CPI波动的影响,国内学者多采用线性回归方法,研究结果难免会忽略M2对CPI的影响是否真正存在对称性。拟以非线性的平滑转换回归(STR)模型深入分析M2对CPI的影响效应。研究结果表明:M2对CPI的影响存在明显的非线性、非对称性特征,目前低CPI状态下,国家应适度制造通货膨胀。

After the eighteenth national congress of the Communist Party of China,our country entered the new normal economic development,macroeconomic policy aims to achieve structural adjustment and maintain the rapid growth of the economy meanwhile controlling inflation in a reasonable range. As an important indicator of inflation,the consumer price index（ CPI） has been widely used in the analysis of macroeconomic stability. In view of the influence of the broad money supply（ M2） on the CPI fluctuation,the domestic scholars often use the linear regression method,but the results of study will inevitably ignore the influence of M2 on the CPI. In this paper,the nonlinear smooth transition regression（ STR） model is deeply used to analyze the effect of M2 on CPI. The research results show that： the influence of M2 on the CPI has obvious nonlinear and non symmetry characteristics. At present,the state should make inflation under low CPI condition.