新常态背景下金融发展对推动城镇化发展作用研究

The Promotion of Financial Development for Urbanization under the Background of New Normal

城镇化是我国适应新常态,引领新常态的重要手段,也是我国未来最大的发展红利与增长引擎。金融则是现代经济的核心,是新型城镇化发展的助推器。本文先厘清金融发展对推动城镇化的作用机理,再基于VAR模型,利用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验法,对中国1978—2013年金融发展与城镇化率的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明:金融发展规模推动了人口城镇化和经济城镇化的发展,但金融发展效率的作用却相反。误差修正模型表明误差修正项参数显著且均为负值,符合反向修正机制,最后基于模型结论提出了相关政策建议。

Urbanization is one important method to adapt to and lead the New Normal as well as the biggest development dividend and growth engine in the future.Finance is the core of modern economy and promoter for the development of new urbanization.This paper first clarifies the promotion mechanism of financial development for urbanization,and then analyzes the relationship between financial development and urbanization rate in China from 1978 to 2013based on the VAR model and through co-integration analysis and Granger causality test.The results show that the increase of financial development scale promotes population urbanization and economy urbanization,but the opposite was true for the improvement of financial development efficiency.And error correction model shows that error correction model parameters are significant and all negative,which is consistent with the reverse correction mechanism.Therefore,to accelerate the development of urbanization it is necessary to strive to develop finance industry,promote competition among banks and establish a multilayer financing system.