中国林业PMI指数先行期测算

Leading Functions of China Forestry PMI

利用时差互相关方法分析中国林业PMI测试期数据（FPI指数）与木材产业宏观经济数据之间的领先相关关系,结合峰谷比较法探究FPI指数中进口指数和出口指数分别与中国木质林产品进出口额之间的领先和滞后关系。研究表明,FPI指数对木材产业宏观经济数据表现出一定的领先相关,FPI的进口指数和出口指数分别领先于木质林产品进出口额1～3个月,可为今后对木材产业的监测及预警提供参考依据。

This paper analyzed the leading correlation between China Forestry PMI （FPI index） and macro forest industry data using cross-correlation method, and discussed the leading and lagging relationship between import/export diffusion index and import/export amount of forest products using peak and valley comparison method. The empirical study results showed that FPI index is leading correlated to the timber industry data, and FPI Import/export diffusion index signals the change of import/export amount of forest products one to three months in advance. Therefore, FPI index is helpful to establish, the theoretical basis for the monitoring and early warning of timber industry.