中国石油产量历史回顾与未来趋势

Historical review and future tendency of oil production in China

中国1950—2014年积累的65组石油产量数据所体现的某些规律,可以用通道来描述。依据通道原理进行数据处理,可以得出如下结论:1在65年的石油发展史中,隐含着一条安全的路线、一条使石油产量健康稳步上升的通道,个别年份产量的大波动是孤立的、不影响全局;2变化率是影响石油产量变化的内在因素,是以极值点和拐点形式形成波动,推动石油产量的不断变化;3石油产量变化出现过3个拐点(1976年、1994年和2007年),将65年分为4个不同的阶段,受2007年拐点的影响,目前处于逐步减慢的增长通道中;4如果至2020年中国石油产量增幅低于每年1.4%,一个产量"峰"状的头部最早将在2018年形成,之后将步入下降的通道之中,时间为10年或以上,"峰"状头部可以被推迟,但不可能消失;5如果至2020年平均增幅大于每年1.4%,则头部不能形成。

Certain laws reflected by 65 sets of China's oil production data in 1950-2014 can be described using channel.Based on the data processing in accordance with channel theory,the following main conclusions are obtained as below:(1)In the 65-year history of petroleum development,a safe route existed as a channel for promoting the sound and steady rising of oil production,and large fluctuations of oil production in individual years are isolated without affecting the global situation.(2)The change rate is an intrinsic factor that influences the change of oil production,fluctuating in the form of extreme point and inflection point to impel the unceasing change of oil production.(3)Three inflection points(1976,1994 and 2007)occurred in changing oil production,by which65 years was divided into four different stages.Affected by the inflection point in 2007,oil production is currently in the gradually slow growth channel.(4)If the increase amplitude of oil production in China is lower than 1.4% annually by 2020,the production peak will be first formed in 2018 at the earliest,followed by an production decline period of 10 years or more.The peak may be delayed,but unable to disappear.(5)If the average increase amplitude of oil production is greater than1.4%annually by2020,the peak cannot be formed.