基于栅格新安江模型的淮河上游土壤侵蚀预测

Prediction of the soil-erosion in the upper stream of the Huaihe River based on the grid Xinanjiang model

将栅格新安江模型与改进通用土壤侵蚀方程进行耦合,建立基于栅格尺度的水沙模拟模型,以淮河上游息县水文站以上为研究区域,基于研究流域DEM数据、土地利用数据、土壤数据以及息县站2000年-2010年水文数据,模拟了淮河上游2000年-2010年输沙过程。并基于构建的水沙模型,结合流域2020年和2030年土地利用远景规划数据设定两种土地利用模式情景,定量分析了不同土地利用模式情景对流域土壤侵蚀的影响。研究结果表明:基于栅格新安江模型的水沙耦合模型在淮河上游具有较好的模拟精度,模拟的输沙量相对误差小于15%,确定性系数0.6以上,满足泥沙模拟精度要求;林地用地面积增加5%,流域土壤侵蚀量减少8.78%,城镇用地面积增加8%,流域土壤侵蚀量减少12.73%。研究成果可为淮河水土保持治理和规划提供参考。

The grid-based Xinanjiang model was coupled with the Universal Soil Loss Equation to simulate water-sediment in the upstream of the Huaihe River.Based on the coupled model and DEM data,land use data,soil data and hydrological data of Xixian station during 2000-2010 years,the soil erosion in the upstream of the Huaihe River was simulated,and by setting two land-use patterns scenarios,the effect of different land use scenarios on soil erosion in the study area was quantitative analyzed.The results showed that the grid-based water-sediment coupled model had a better simulation accuracy in the upstream of the Huaihe River,the relative error of the simulated sediment load was less than 15%,and the uncertainty factor was above 0.6,which could meet the requirements of the sediment simulation accuracy.The woodland area was increased by 5%,then the amount of soil erosion of the basin was decreased by 8.78%,while an increase of 8%to urban,the soil erosion of the basin was decreased by 12.73%.The outputs can provide a reference value to soil and water conservation protecting in the upstream of the Huaihe River.