近30年江西双季稻安全生产期及温光资源变化

Changes in Safe Production Dates and Heat-light Resources of Double Cropping Rice in Jiangxi Province in Recent 30 Years

明确水稻安全生产期及温光资源的变化规律,是提高温光资源利用率和实现水稻高产稳产的重要基础。本研究分析了江西不同生态区(赣南、赣中、赣北)15个气象站近30年(1984-2013)逐日日平均气温、日照时数等气象资料,参照水稻生产中常用的安全生产临界温度指标,研究了近30年来不同地区50%和80%保证率下双季稻安全生产期及温光资源的变化规律。结果表明,1999-2013年(前15年)各地安全生产期及温光资源较1984-1998年(后15年)发生明显变化,且地区间存在一定的差异。早稻覆膜育秧安全播种期平均提前了10d(气候变化倾向率-4.16d/10a,下同),早稻安全直播期提前了4d(-3.17d/10a),早稻安全移栽期提前了2d(-2.21d/10a)。晚稻安全齐穗期延迟趋势不明显(1.16d/10a),晚稻安全成熟期延迟了8d(3.56d/10a)。全年安全生产期天数在早稻覆膜育秧和直播条件下分别延长了18d(7.72d/10a)和11d(6.73d/10a)。安全生产期内温光资源总体呈温度明显升高、积温显著增加、日照时数无明显变化的特点。监测资料表明,近年来各地区实际生产日期作了相应的调整,但仍与安全生产日期存在较大偏差,因此,推算了近30年各站点80%保证率的安全生产日期,以就近指导各地稻作季节安排、种植方式选择及早晚稻品种搭配。最后,依据气候变化趋势,讨论了农艺措施的可能适应策略。

Ascertaining the change rules of safe production dates and heat-light resources of rice is an important basis for high use efficiency of heat-light resources,and high and stable production.In this study,the daily mean temperatures and sunshine hours during the past 30years(1984—2013)provided by 15 meteorological stations in different ecological regions in Jiangxi Province(Northern Jiangxi,Central Jiangxi and Southern Jiangxi)were analyzed.According to the critical temperature indices for rice safe production dates,the change rules of safe production dates and heat-light resources of double rice with 50%and 80% guarantee rates were provided.The results showed that the safe production dates and heat-light resources changed obviously between the first 15years(1984—1998)and the second 15years(1999—2013),and there were certain differences among different regions.Compared with the first 15-year period,the safe sowing dates of early rice seedlings with film-mulching in the second 15-year period were ten-day ahead of time(with the tendency of-4.16d10a^(-1),the same as below),and those of direct seedling shifted to four days earlier(-3.17d10a^(-1));the safe transplanting dates were two-day ahead of time(-2.21d10a^(-1)).For late rice,the safe maturity dates were delayed by eight days(3.56d10a^(-1)),while those of full heading delayed unobviously.The safe production season for the early rice with film-mulching and direct seedling extended by eighteen(7.72d10a^(-1))and eleven(6.73 d10a^(-1))days,respectively.During the safe production season,daily mean temperature increased obviously,accumulated temperature added remarkably,and sunshine hours changed unobviously.Monitoring data showed that,practical production dates were different from the safe production dates,though the practical production dates were adjusted correspondingly in recent years.So the safe production dates under 80% guarantee rate over the past 30 years were obtained by each meteorological stations,which can be referred in production arrangement,planting patterns and varieties collocation for double rice in the regions nearby.Finally,according to the trends of climate changes,the possible adaptive strategies of agronomic measures were discussed.