近60a新疆开都河径流变化特征分析

Study on Variation Characteristics of Runoff in Kaidu River Over 60 Years

根据新疆开都河大山口水文站1956—2012年逐月径流量资料,采用非参数检验、R/S法及最大熵谱法分析了年径流量变化特征。结果表明:开都河年径流量在1997年发生突变,并达到极显著水平,这与M—K法的计算结果一致;年尺度下的径流量变化通过了显著性检验,Z值为正,表明近60 a来径流量呈增长趋势,倾向率为0.118 2亿m^3/a;径流量赫斯特指数为0.877 4,表明未来径流量仍呈增加趋势;年径流量变化以28 a为第一主周期,9 a为第二主周期,16 a为第三主周期。

Based on the Dashankou Hydrometric Station monthly runoff data from 1956 to 2012, this paper used non parametric test, R/ Smethod and the maximum entropy spectral method to analyze the variation characteristics of annual runoff in Kaidu River. The results showthat the annual runoff in Kaidu River mutations occurrs in 1997 and reaches the extremely significant level. The calculation results areconsistent with the M-K method; annual runoff passes significant test and Z value is positive, showing a rising trend in the recent 60 a. Thedip ratio is 0.1182×108 m3 / a; Hearst index is 0.8774, that means annual runoff changes still keep increasing trend in the future; 28 a as thefirst main period, 9 a as the second main period and 16 a as the third main period. The results provide an important reference for reasonabledevelopment and utilization of regional water resources.