土地经营规模对粮食生产的影响——基于中国十三个粮食主产区农户调查数据的分析

Impact Analysis of Farm Size On Grain Production——Based on rural household survey in China's 13 major grain producing areas

本文构建规模经营与粮食单产、"非粮化"之间的分析模型,利用国家统计局农村住户调查面板数据进行实证分析。结果表明,水稻和小麦的经营规模与单产之间呈U形曲线,但曲线拐点超过绝大多数农户的实际经营面积,样本位于拐点左侧,达不到最优规模,因此单产是随经营规模增加而递减的。玉米的经营规模和单产之间呈倒U形曲线,存在最优规模,而且最优面积为400亩左右。从经营规模与"非粮化"的关系来看,播种面积与种粮比例虽然呈倒U曲线关系,但是样本点位于曲线顶点左侧,即规模越大越倾向种粮。

This paper builds an analysis model between the farm size and grain yield per unit. Through the empirical analysis based on rural household survey data in China’s 13 major grain producing areas in 2005-2010,we find that different grain crop gets different impact of farm size on production. Rice and wheats yield per unit is u-shaped with farm size. Since the farm size of most sample household planting rice and wheat is lower than farm size of inflection point（ in the left side of the curve）,yield per unit is decreasing with the increase of farm size. By contrast,corn’s yield per unit is inverted u-shaped with farm size. The optimum-scale of corn is about 400 mu. We also find that the proportion of grain acreage is inverted u-shaped with farm size. As the farm size of most sample household is lower than farm size of inflection point（ in the left side of the curve）,which means,the larger farm size,the bigger proportion of grain acreage.The result suggests that there is no evidence of non-grain growing effect as far as sample data is concerned.