养儿防老、多子多福与乡村老人养老倾向

The Relationship among Raising Children for Old Age,More Sons More Happiness and Pension Tendency of Rural Elderly

基于中国健康与养老追踪调查2011年数据,对养儿防老中的"儿"和多子多福中的"子"进行概念界定,采用Logistic模型和Ordinal Logistic模型,实证分析养儿防老、多子多福这些传统观念的现实意义。研究结果表明:对于农村老人晚年幸福生活而言,有无子女比有无儿子更重要,有无儿子对农村老人晚年生活满意度影响依旧较为明显;多子女会增加农村老人对晚年生活的整体幸福感,但儿子数量这一作用并不显著,多子多福不再特指儿子;有配偶,身体健康的农村老人更倾向于独立养老。

Based on the data in 2011 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study（CHARLS）, this article distinguishes the concept of ＂er＂ and ＂zi＂, using logistic and ordinal logistic model to test the significance of raising children for old age and more sons more happiness. And the result shows that for rural elderly happy life, it seems more important to have children than to have sons, but the impact of having sons or not on the satisfaction of old age life is still obvious to rural people; more children will increase the overall sense of well-being of the elderly in rural areas during their old age, but the role of the number of sons is not significant, more sons more happiness turns to more children more happiness; the elderly who have spouse and healthy body prefer to independent pension.