Long-term surface air temperature trend and the possible impact on historical warming in CMIP5 models

模式对历史气候变化的模拟往往延用工业革命前控制试验(PICTL)的物理过程及设置,同时使用PICTL的模拟结果作为初值。因此,控制试验(PICTL)中是否存在气候漂移将直接影响模式对全球变暖的模拟。本文评估了27个CMIP5模式模拟的气温长期漂移趋势及其对全球变暖模拟的影响。结果表明,大部分模式模拟的全球平均气温的长期漂移趋势都很小(<0.06°C/100 a),但个别模式对于全球变暖的模拟存在较大影响。在50°S^65°S纬度带内的南大洋,40°N以北的北大西洋和北太平洋区域,大部分模式模拟的气温漂移趋势对局地变暖的模拟影响较大(10%~20%)。大气层顶向上长波辐射和向上短波辐射共同影响全球气温的长期变化。另外,积分时间越长,中高纬深层海洋得到有效调整,气温的长期漂移趋势越小。本文量化了气候漂移,检验了模式的稳定性,这有助于评估模式对全球变暖的模拟能力。

Whether large trends exist in pre-industrial control （PICTL） runs is critically important for evaluating simulations of present climate change. This study examined the long-term trends in PICTL surface air temperature （SAT） in CMIP5 models. Small trends （〈0.06 ℃/100 year） in the globally averaged SAT （GASAT） exist in most CMIP5 models. Of these, positive （negative） trends result from positive （negative） net radiation fluxes at the TOA. This conclusion was further confirmed by the significant positive correlations between the TOA and the SAT tendency. The PICTL GASAT trends constitute less than 10% of the historical trends, indicating that such trends are of negligible importance in estimates of historical global warming in most models. Spatially, relative to the historical trends, the PICTL trends comprise a nontrivial fraction （〉20%） in the Southern Ocean between 50°S and 65°S and in the northern Atlantic and Pacific oceans north of 40°N, with large inter-model spread. The long-term behavior of SAT is significantly related to ocean circulation adjustment in the mid-high latitudes.