干旱区城镇化进程对水资源利用效率影响的实证研究——基于DEA模型与IPAT模型

Empirical Study on Impact of Urbanization on Utilization Efficiency of Water Resource in Arid Area:Based on DEA Model and IPAT Model

基于2004—2012年中国新疆15个地州市的数据,利用DEA模型测算其水资源利用效率。在此基础上,利用IPAT模型实证分析新疆城镇化对水资源利用效率的影响。结果显示:2004—2012年新疆的水资源利用效率除极个别年份外均保持在1.0以上,其水资源利用效率明显提高,其中北疆地区的提升最为明显;技术进步对新疆水资源利用效率的提升具有较为明显的促进作用,而技术推广、管理水平和生产规模方面的相对不足影响了水资源利用效率的进一步提升,部分区域甚至出现效率下降;城镇化、人均地区生产总值和技术水平三者对新疆水资源利用效率的提高均有正向作用,其中城镇化的作用最强,技术水平次之,人均地区生产总值的作用最弱;城镇化导致水资源利用规模增大、效率提高,所形成的集聚效应对用水的影响以减量效应为主。最后,提出相应的政策建议。

This paper uses the data of 15 prefectures in Xinjiang from 2004 to 2012to calculate the utilization efficiency of water resource.Then it analyzes the impact of urbanization on the utilization efficiency of water resource by using the IPAT model.The result shows as follows：the utilization efficiency of water resource in Xinjiang remains above 1.0except in a few years,and the utilization efficiency of water resource improves significantly,especially in the north of Xinjiang;technological progress has a obvious impact on the improvement of utilization efficiency of water resource in Xinjiang,but the utilization efficiency of water resource can＇t further enhance because of the insignificancy of technology promotion,management level and production scale,even decline in some regions;urbanization,economic development and technical level have positive effects on the utilization efficiency of water resource,and the effect of urbanization is the strongest,followed by technical level and economic development;urbanization leads to the increasing of utilization scale and utilization efficiency of water resource,and the impact of agglomeration effect on water utilization is mainly the reduction effect.Finally,it gives some policy recommendations.