玉溪市电网遭受地质灾害风险评估

Risk assessment of the geological disasters likely to be suffered by the power grid in Yuxi City

玉溪市地质灾害多发,电网覆盖面广,电网遭受地质灾害的灾变损失较大。通过建立地质灾害危险性评价指标体系和电网遭受地质灾害脆弱性评价指标体系,采用专家调查法、层次分析法和熵值法等确定相应权重,进行地质灾害危险性评价和电网遭受地质灾害脆弱性评价;构建电网遭受地质灾害风险评估模型,对玉溪市各县区电网遭受地质灾害的风险值进行综合评估,并运用聚类分析进行等级区划。评估结果表明,玉溪市16.34%地区电网遭受地质灾害的风险性较高,整体遭受地质灾害的风险较低。

The present paper is aimed at the risk assessment for the geological disasters of power grid in Yuxi City,in hoping to provide some reference for power grid planning,construction and maintenance to some extent. As a matter of fact,the power grid in the City is widely covered,scattering all parts of the city,which makes it opposed to great geological disasters with serious damages,particularly in material loss. Further analysis reveals that such geological disasters are mainly caused by the following two factors： the geological hazards and the vulnerability of the power grid. In this paper,we have established a hazard evaluation index system and a hazard evaluation model of such disasters and confirmed with the index weight worked out by the experts.As to the vulnerable index that is likely to lead to the geological disasters,it has to be attributed to the social-economic control level of the power grids. Based on the above analysis,we have established a vulnerability evaluation index system for power grid geological disasters,including seven indexes,that is,the substation density,the line tower density,etc. On the other hand,we have chosen two general methods for determining the weight,that is,the analytic hierarchy process（ AHP） and entropy method. In order to make the evaluation results sufficiently reliable,we have adopted a comprehensive weight evaluation index system with the AHP and entropy methods as its determinative means. As a result,we have developed a comprehensive index system to test the vulnerability of power grid likely to be subjected to geological disasters for the city. The comprehensive evaluation result we have gained can be divided into four levels through classifying the analysis results,which demonstrate that the regional power grid of the city has to be subjected to higher geological disasters,which account for 16. 34% of the total disasters of such kinds confronted by the City,though the vulnerability doesn＇t seem so high in comparison with the domestic and international level of such risks.