新中老驾驶员交通安全违法随意性变化趋势及致因研究

Trendy variation analysis of the traffic violation randomness in light of the drivers' driving history and the causative mechanism

为降低交通安全违法随意性,运用模糊信号检测理论,以动态模拟手段,进行了驾驶员交通安全违法随意性检测试验,并提取、分析驾驶员危险感知数据,研究了驾龄增长与驾驶员交通安全违法随意性之间的变化趋势和造成这种趋势的影响因素及作用机理。结果表明,随驾龄增长驾驶员交通安全违法随意性呈先增大而后降低、且老驾驶员交通安全违法随意性更大的总体趋势;在2项影响因素中,交通执法仅决定驾驶员交通安全违法随意性的整体水平。而新、中、老驾驶员对交通法规保障行车安全作用的认识不同,这造成了交通安全违法随意性的总体变化趋势。在交通管理中,对新、中驾驶员应侧重交通法规教育,并提高对中段驾驶员的交通执法力度;对老驾驶员应侧重交通执法。

In order to reduce traffic violation randomness,the paper tries to make an exploration not only of the trendy variation of the car drivers＇ violation randomness from the point of view of their driving history but also from the other factors associated with the driving habits and their motivational mechanism in hoping to reduce the traffic accidents. For the aforementioned purpose,the paper first of all intends to demonstrate that the traffic enforcement and the hazards caused by traffic violations can be attributed to two dominant restrictive factors for such violation randomness and the two factors leading to such traffic violation cases. And,then,the paper intends to lay out an experiment to test the drivers＇ traffic violation randomness by using a driving simulation for the purpose to gather necessary characteristic data of the typical drivers＇ response to the traffic laws and the likely hazards.The data we have accumulated help us to result in three sets of parameters when they were processed based on the fuzzy signal detection theory whereas they were the set of parameters involving the drivers＇ sensitivity to the traffic conditions,the set of factors of the drives＇ law-abiding awareness and the set of factors of the drives＇ hazard response bias. The first set of factors indicates the drivers＇ ability to judge whether the conditions permit traffic violation or not. Whereas the second set indicates the driver＇law-abiding awareness,the third set accounts for the drivers＇ instantaneous response inclinations to the hazards. The results of our calculation prove that the average law-abiding inclinations of drivers with 0-4 years driving history is 0. 495 1,while the drivers with 5- 10 driving years＇ driving history is 1. 372 9 and the drivers with over 10 years＇ driving history is 0. 862 9. The above statistics can perhaps imply that the variation trends of traffic violation randomness are likely to first increase and then decrease with the driving years with the randomness of the drivers with over 10 driving years is bigger than those with 0-4 driving years. On the other hand,the traffic enforcement only determines the general tendency of their traffic violation randomness. What is more,the difference of the drivers＇ view-points on the importance of traffic laws in guaranteeing the traffic safety that also accounts for the variation trend. For example,according to the statistic records,the traffic violation randomness of the drivers with 5- 10 driving years＇ history is the biggest but tends to be reduced quite likely.More intensive education and warning on traffic law observation and harsher punishment after traffic violations should be given to this group of drivers so as to enhance their awareness against the traffic law violations in a minor range and / or promote the reduction of the rule violation. Due to the stronger instantaneous response awareness to the hazards,it would be harder for the drivers over 10 years＇ driving experience to learn to be more conscientious against the traffic rules violation and that is why it be of absolute need to impose more serious traffic enforcement to confine their mindless attitude to the traffic regulations.