华北地区交通环境承载力预警分析

Early Warning of Traffic Environment Carrying Capacity of Northern China

基于模糊物元理论和熵权法构建交通环境承载力预警模型,对华北地区三省二市的交通环境承载力进行综合分析。结果表明:河北和山西的交通环境综合承载力预警指数已经达到了中度预警;而北京、天津和内蒙古的交通环境综合预警指数虽然处于轻度预警区间,但预警值已接近中度预警水平,说明华北地区的交通环境承载力形势不容乐观。从交通环境承载力的三个分量来看,北京和天津地区的交通环境承载力主要受交通环境污染的限制;而河北、山西和内蒙古地区的交通环境承载力主要受资源和经济因素制约。

The early-warning model of traffic environmental carrying capacity is established based on fuzzy matter element theory and entropy weight method to study the traffic environmental carrying capacity of Northern China include three provinces and two municipalities.The results indicate that：the early warning indexes of transportation environmental carrying capacity in Hebei Province and Shanxi Province have reached medium level;although the comprehensive traffic environment early warning index in Beijing,Tianjin and Inner Mongolia is in a mild warning range,the index value is already close to the level of moderate warning.From the perspectives of the three components of traffic environment carrying capacity,the traffic environment carrying capacity of Tianjin and Beijing area is mainly limited by transport pollution,and the traffic carrying capacity in Hebei,Shanxi and Inner Mongolia is mainly restricted by the resources and economic factors.