广西壮族自治区近六十年气候变化研究

STUDY ON THE CLIMATE CHANGE OF GUANGXI ZHUANG AUTONOMOUS REGION NEARLY SIXTY YEARS

基于广西壮族自治区8地市1951-2014年的气候数据统计分析，利用求平均值、回归分析等方法分析了气温、降水量的时空变化情况。结果表明：广西壮族自治区近六十年的年平均气温呈上升趋势，年降水量呈下降趋势。期间1976年冷害、1963年大旱、1994年大涝都与厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜、拉马德雷和太阳黑子有关，通过对广西近六十年的年度、季度、月度的平均气温、降水量进行分析，结果表明厄尔尼诺事件对广西气温影响比对降水的影响明显，太阳黑子和降水量呈一定的相关关系，从而为短期气候预测提供一定的理论参考。

Based on the climate data of 8 meteorological offices and stations of Guangxi zhuang autonomous region during 1951 - 2014,using methods of averaging and linear tendency estimate,we analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of temperature,precipitation,and relationship between variations in temperature,precipitation and El Nino / La Nina,numbers of sunspots and PDO. The results show that,in the last 60 years,the average temperature expressed an increasing trend,and the precipitation fluctuated slightly,expressing a declining trend. The cold damage in 1976,the drought in 1963,and the waterlogging in 1994 are related to El Nino / La Nina,POD and sunspot. By analyzing the temperature,precipitation of year,quarter and month during 1951 - 2014,we can learn that the El Nino impact on temperature is more obvious than that on precipitation. There is evidence,at both yearly date and quarterly date,of a relationship between sunspot and precipitation. From the above we can come to the conclusion that will provide some theory reference to short - term climatic prediction.