中国银行业产业结构变动研究——基于利率市场化程度与影子银行规模的思考

近年来,我国影子银行规模不断扩大,利率市场化进程不断推进。面对各类商业银行在影子银行创造上不断加力以及利率市场化推动银行业现有格局演变的新形势,本文立足于我国银行业发展的现实,结合2006至2014年的相关数据,对利率市场化程度与影子银行规模扩张对银行业市场结构的影响进行了理论与实证分析。研究结论表明,利率市场化和影子银行发展对银行业产业集中度指标有负向影响,且利率市场化的影响更加显著,这两类变量会加剧我国银行业竞争态势,对目前的行业格局有深入的影响。

In recent years, the scale of shadow banking in our country has been expanding, and the liberalization process of interest rate has been constantly promoted. In the face of the new situation that all kinds of commercial Banks put strength on the creation of shadow Banks as well as the liberalization of interest rate promotes the change of the existing banking. Based on the reality of the development of China＇s banking industry, this article has analyzed the impact of the interest rate liber- alization and the shadow banking expansion on the structure of banking market with the data from 2006 to 2014 . It turns out that interest rate liberalization and the shadow banking develspment have a negative effect on the concentration ratio of banking industry. And with the development of the influence of interest rate liberalization, the two types of variables will intensify the competition of banking industry, which has a deep influence on the present industry structure.