城镇化进程中居民生活碳排放动态特征分析

Dynamic Analysis of Carbon Emissions for Urban and Rural Residents in the Process of Urbanization

对2000~2012年间中国城镇居民与农村居民的直接、间接碳排放变化情况进行统计及回归分析,结果表明：截至2012年,城镇居民人均直接碳排放量年均增长17.14%,间接碳排放量年均增长6.42%,农村居民人均直接碳排放量年均增长16.51%,间接碳排放量年均增长2.81%;能源消费强度的下降及居民生活消费支出的上升联合作用,使城镇与农村居民生活间接碳排放量均呈现波动增长趋势,其中食品与居住消费是居民间接碳排放主导因素;城镇居民人口数量是城镇居民生活碳排放总量的决定性因素;城镇生活方式相比农村具有更低的单位生活支出碳排放量;城镇化率对居民生活碳排放量分别具有0.13%和0.09%的弹性系数,初步验证了城镇化与居民生活碳排放的正相关关系。

By statistics and regression analysis method,this essay measures the change of direct and indirect carbon emissions caused by urban residents and rural residents during 2000-2012.The results show that：direct carbon emissions of urban residents has an average annual growth of 17.14% and indirect carbon emissions have an average annual growth of 6.42%.By contrast,direct carbon emissions of rural residents have an average annual growth of 16.51% and indirect carbon emissions have an average annual growth of 2.81%;the decrease of energy consumption intensity and the increase of living expenses of residents lead to an fluctuate increase of indirect carbon emissions.Consumption of food and horses are leading factors;population size is the key factor of total carbon release of urban residents;urban lifestyle has lower carbon emissions per-consumption than rural lifestyle;urbanization rate has a 0.13% elasticity for urban residents and 0.09% elasticity for rural residents.The research verifies the positive correlation between urbanization and residents carbon emissions.