基于数据重构的生态用地变化驱动因素计量研究——以西南煤炭城市为例

Research on the Driving Factors of the Ecological Land Evolution Based on Data Reconstruction:A Case Study of the Southwest Coal Cities

研究目的:在重构数据的基础上客观把握生态用地变化驱动因素及作用机制。研究方法:文献分析法,计量经济法,实证研究法。研究结果:(1)实证结果显示,西南地区典型城市生态用地变化的前四位驱动力分别为城市扩张、工矿建设与煤炭开采、人口及经济发展和地区自然气候条件;(2)对比分析发现,六盘水地区生态用地对城市扩张的敏感程度最大,达到-0.02,其次为采矿面积(-0.007)、人口数量(0.007);遵义地区生态用地对城市扩张(-0.027)的敏感程度也最大,其次为采矿面积(-0.018)、人口数量(-0.0057);毕节地区生态用地对人口数量(0.018)的敏感程度最大,其次为城市扩张(-0.011)、采矿面积(-0.009);黔西南地区生态用地对工矿建设的敏感程度最大,达到-0.008,其次为城市扩张(-0.007)、原煤产量(-0.003)。研究结论:西南地区生态用地保护与修复政策创新应该采用差别化的调控策略,六盘水和遵义应该严格控制城市粗放式扩张从而达到保护生态用地的目标,而毕节地区重点要控制人口增长,黔西南则要控制矿产资源的过度开采和工矿用地扩张等,从而扭转生态用地日益缩减的严峻态势。

The purpose of this study is to grasp driving factors and driving mechanism of ecological land evolution based on reconstructing data.Methods of documentation,econometric analysis and empirical research are employed.Results show that：（1） The empirical results show that the top four driving factors of ecological land evolution in the Southwest coal cities are urban expansion,construction of factories and diggings and coal mining,population and economic growth,and natural climate conditions;（2） The contrastive analysis indicates that,the index of ecological land evolution in Liupanshui area are sorted as follows according to the sensitive degree：regional urban expansion（-0.02）,coal mining area（-0.07） and population（0.07）;the index of Zunyi area ecological land evolution sort as follows：regional urban expansion（-0.027）,coal mining area（-0.018） and population（-0.0057）;the index of ecological land evolution in Bijie area are sorted as follows：population（0.018）,urban expansion（-0.011）,and coal mining area（-0.009）;the index of ecological land evolution in Qianxinan area are sorted as follows：coal mining area（-0.008）,urban expansion（-0.0007）,and coal yield（-0.003）;It is concluded that we should adopt differentiated regulatory policy,urban extensive expansion should be strictly controlled in Liupanshui and Zunyi area.Bijie should control population growth.Excessive exploitation of mineral resources and mining land expansion has to be controlled in Qianxinan area,thus to reverse the shrinking trend of the ecological land.