基于灰色关联TOPSIS模型的武汉市环境承载力评价及障碍因子诊断

Evaluation on Environmental Carrying Capacity of Wuhan City Based on the Gray Correlation TOPSIS Method and Diagnosis of Its Obstacle Indicators

从经济环境、社会环境和生态环境三个方面选取19个指标构建环境承载力评价指标体系,运用灰色关联TOPSIS法分析了2000~2013年武汉市环境承载力状况,并利用障碍度对影响环境承载力的障碍因子进行诊断。结果表明：（1）总体来看,2000~2013年武汉市环境承载力总体水平不断上升,综合指数从0.3099增加到0.5494;（2）从分项指标来看,经济环境承载力、社会环境承载力和生态环境承载力均呈不同幅度上升趋势;（3）长远来看,经济环境承载力是影响武汉市环境承载力的首要因素,研究期内经济环境承载力和社会环境承载力的障碍度分别以年均0.45%和2.26%的速度增加,而生态环境承载力的障碍度则以年均11.66%的速度下降;（4）影响武汉市环境承载力的主要障碍因子包括人均社会固定资产投资、人均GDP、人均社会消费品零售总额等。

The paper firstly constructed an evaluation index system for environmental carrying capacity including nineteen indices from three aspects of economic environment,social environment and ecological environment,make an analysis about the changes in environmental carrying capacity in Wuhan City from 2000 to 2013 based on the gray correlation TOPSIS method,and its obstacle factors that affected the environmental carrying capacity were diagnosed using obstacle degree.The results showed that：（1） From the whole,the level of environmental carrying capacity in Wuhan City had been gradually improved from 2000 to 2013,with the index increasing from 0.3099 to 0.5494.（2） In the terms of the single indicators,economic,social and ecological environmental carrying capacity was increased in different speed;（3） In the long run,the economic environmental carrying capacity was found to be the major factor affecting environmental carrying capacity in Wuhan City,the obstacle degree of economic environmental carrying capacity and social environment carrying capacity increased by an annual average of 0.45% and 2.26%,respectively,but the obstacle degree of ecological environmental carrying capacity decreased by an annual average of 11.66%.（4） the per capita social investment in fixed assets,per capita GDP,per capita total retail sales of social consumer goods were verified to be the key obstacle for further improvement of environmental carrying capacity in Wuhan City.